Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts

19 May 2025

The Great Shift: A Tale of Globalism’s Reckoning and the Triumph of American Resilience

Story by Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com

For over four decades, Donald J. Trump has stood as a relentless champion for American workers, sounding the alarm against the scourge of unfettered globalism that has gutted U.S. manufacturing and left entire communities in ruins. Since the 1980s, when he first took to platforms like The Oprah Winfrey Show to decry Japan’s currency manipulation and predatory trade practices, Trump has called for tariffs to level the playing field. He saw what others ignored: countries like China, India, and Japan were using cheap labor, environmental destruction, and outright theft of American intellectual property to drive U.S. companies out of markets. The cost? Millions of good-paying middle-class jobs vanished as factories relocated overseas, leaving behind a trail of shattered communities, ghost towns, and entire states hollowed out by globalist greed.

Look at Detroit, once the wealthiest city in the world in the 1950s, reduced to filing for bankruptcy by 2013. The Rust Belt—stretching from Ohio to Michigan to Pennsylvania—became a graveyard of forgotten dreams, with cities like Youngstown, Flint, and Gary, Indiana, fading into shadows of their former selves. This wasn’t a natural decline; it was a deliberate betrayal. Trade deals like NAFTA and China’s entry into the WTO opened the floodgates for foreign goods, while Chinese companies stole U.S. designs and patents, flooding markets with knockoff products that undercut American innovators. The result was a gutted middle class, abandoned factories, and communities left to rot—all while globalist elites and complicit politicians preached the virtues of “free trade.”
Yet, the naysayers who claim “manufacturing will never come back” are dead wrong. Even today, in 2025, over 570,000 Americans work in auto parts manufacturing, and nearly 1,200 auto parts companies still call Detroit home. These are not relics—they are proof of an industry that refuses to die. And now, Donald Trump is their defender, wielding the tool he’s championed since the Reagan era: tariffs.
Trump’s Tariff Crusade: A Vision Vindicated
From his 1988 critiques of Japan to his 2000 book The America We Deserve, Trump has argued that tariffs are the antidote to unfair trade. By 2016, he made tariffs a cornerstone of his campaign, proposing 45% duties on Chinese goods and 35% on Mexican imports to bring jobs home. In his first term (2017–2021), he delivered: 25% tariffs on steel, 10% on aluminum, and up to 25% on Chinese imports reshaped global supply chains, forcing companies to rethink offshoring. Now, in his second term as the 47th President, Trump’s vision is bearing fruit. Since January 20, 2025, he’s claimed over $5–10 trillion in new U.S. investments—Apple’s $500 billion in manufacturing and training, TSMC’s $100 billion in Arizona semiconductor plants, Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion pledge, and countless others. Skeptics quibble, claiming some investments were pre-existing or speculative, but even at the low end—say, $3 trillion—it’s a staggering leap beyond the paltry sums secured under Joe Biden, whose globalist policies left America’s heartland to wither.
These investments aren’t random; they’re the legacy of Trump’s first-term tariffs, which raised the cost of imports and incentivized domestic production. Apple’s shift to U.S. manufacturing began in response to 2018 tariffs on Chinese components. Hyundai and Posco Holdings, which recently announced U.S. investments, considered steel mills during Trump’s first term, only to shelve them amid pandemic uncertainty and Biden’s weak trade stance. Now, with Trump back and threatening universal tariffs of 10–20%—or 60% on China—companies are racing to build in America, from NVIDIA’s $500 billion AI infrastructure to Pratt Industries’ $5 billion for 5,000 Rust Belt jobs. Even Biden kept Trump’s tariffs, a silent admission of their power. Trump’s vision, forged over 35 years, is proving unstoppable: tariffs work.
The Media’s Inflation Lie: Markets, Not Tariffs, Set Prices
The media, however, refuses to celebrate this revival. Instead, outlets like MSN churn out hit pieces like “China Responds to Trump’s Trade Pressure with Countermeasures,” amplifying Beijing’s complaints while ignoring America’s gains. Their favorite scare tactic? Claiming Trump’s tariffs will ignite inflation, driving up costs for consumers. But this narrative crumbles under scrutiny. As I detailed in my article, “The Rise and Fall of Steel Prices” (nosocialism.com, April 2025), the market—not tariffs—ultimately determines prices. When Trump imposed 25% steel tariffs in 2018, prices spiked briefly as markets adjusted, but by 2019, steel prices began to fall, dropping below pre-tariff levels in many cases. Why? Because markets adapt. If consumers and businesses won’t pay inflated prices, producers lower costs or innovate to compete—exactly what happened with steel.
Far from fueling inflation, Trump’s first term saw lower overall inflation than the Obama or Biden administrations. Under Obama, inflation averaged 1.8% annually (2009–2017); under Biden, it surged to 5.7% at its peak in 2022, driven by supply chain chaos and energy costs. Trump’s first term? Inflation averaged just 1.9% (2017–2021), despite tariffs. The media’s silence on this is deafening. They’ll scream about tariffs but won’t mention the real inflation driver under Biden: the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. In 2021, Biden’s decision to halt the pipeline sent oil prices soaring from $30 to $130 per barrel by 2022. Since everything in America—food, goods, you name it—moves by diesel, this fivefold spike rippled through the economy, jacking up costs for every consumer. Yet, MSN and their ilk never uttered a word about this inflationary disaster. Why? Because it doesn’t fit their globalist agenda.
The Real Betrayal: Why Were Our Communities Abandoned?
The media’s obsession with inflation myths and China’s talking points distracts from the real question: why were America’s communities allowed to die? The Rust Belt’s decline wasn’t inevitable—it was engineered. NAFTA, signed in 1994, opened the door for companies to flee to Mexico. China’s 2001 WTO entry unleashed a flood of cheap goods, backed by stolen U.S. designs and subsidized production. Currency manipulation and lax environmental rules gave foreign firms an unfair edge, while American workers paid the price. Entire towns—schools, businesses, families—were wiped out. Detroit went from the world’s richest city to a bankrupt shell. Gary, Indiana, once a steel powerhouse, became a symbol of decay. This was economic warfare, and our leaders did nothing.
Now, Trump is fighting back. His tariffs are a direct challenge to the globalist system that enriched corporations and foreign regimes at America’s expense. They’re a signal to companies: build here, hire here, or pay the price. And the world is responding. From Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion to France’s $20 billion in logistics to South Korea’s steel investments, foreign firms are pouring money into U.S. factories, data centers, and jobs. Domestic giants like Apple, NVIDIA, and IBM are doubling down, driven by tariffs, tax incentives, and the undeniable momentum of Trump’s vision.
A New Dawn for America’s Heartland
The naysayers can keep shouting that manufacturing is dead, that the Rust Belt is gone, that America can’t compete. But the truth is in the numbers: 570,000 Americans still work in auto parts manufacturing. Nearly 1,200 auto parts companies thrive in Detroit. These are the seeds of a revival, and Trump is their champion. Instead of parroting China’s complaints or peddling inflation scare stories, the media should be asking why our leaders let places like Detroit collapse. They should be investigating how globalist policies—NAFTA, WTO, unchecked IP theft—stripped away the middle class and left entire states to wither.
This is the great shift—a reckoning for globalism and a rebirth for American manufacturing. Trump’s tariffs, rooted in decades of conviction, are bringing jobs back, rebuilding communities, and restoring hope. Forget the media’s quibbling over whether it’s $5 trillion or $10 trillion in new investments; the number doesn’t matter as much as the reality. Factories are reopening. Jobs are returning. Towns are stirring. The era of globalism’s free ride is over, and America is building again. The Rust Belt is rising, and Trump is leading the charge—not just for Detroit, but for every forgotten corner of this great nation.

24 April 2025

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Winning the Trade War with China

By Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com

April 24, 2025
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have reshaped the U.S.-China economic battlefield, positioning America to come out on top in the ongoing trade war. Critics in the media and establishment think tanks warn that Trump’s tariffs—145% on Chinese goods, 10% globally—will cripple consumers and alienate allies. They’re wrong, just as they were in 2018 when they predicted runaway inflation from steel tariffs. Today, a manufacturing boom, curbs on China’s trade tricks, and Beijing’s economic vulnerabilities show that Trump’s strategy is delivering results. Trump recently extended a hand to China, but they're now acting like a petulant child who's toys have been taken away. While the war isn’t over, the U.S. holds the upper hand—here’s why.



Tariffs Work: A Proven Track Record
In 2018, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on steel, sparking media cries of inflation doom. Prices spiked for 30 days, then fell below pre-tariff levels by 2023, thanks to increased U.S. production and global supply adjustments (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Today’s tariffs are even more strategic. Since April 2025, a 10% global tariff (down from 10–90% threats) and a 145% levy on Chinese imports have generated $21 billion in revenue, with projections nearing $170 billion by year-end. This funds Trump’s tax cuts—no Social Security, overtime, or tip taxes—without ballooning deficits, despite the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) $200 billion estimate, which often misses dynamic growth (e.g., 2017 tax cut shortfalls 20% below CBO forecasts).
Critics like the Peterson Institute claim tariffs will cost households $1,700 annually. They’re off-base. Consumer electronics—73% of smartphones, 78% of laptops from China—are exempt, slashing cost estimates closer to $800 (Bloomberg, 2025) and even that may be an overestimation, considering that it's mostly on Toys and Apparel, items consumers can often forgo or cut back on to suit their budget. High-margin industries, like auto parts (where dealers charge $1,000 for $150 brakes), can absorb a 10% tariff without gouging consumers. The 145% Chinese tariff? It’s a negotiating tactic, not permanent, designed to drag Beijing to the table. In 2018, tariffs jumped from 3% to 17% with minimal inflation (1.8% CPI in 2019). History suggests markets will adjust again. China isn't the only game in town.
Reshoring: America’s Manufacturing Revival
Trump’s tariffs, paired with Biden’s CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts, have ignited a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, reducing reliance on China. The CHIPS Act alone has spurred over 100 projects worth $540 billion, with 50+ companies—Intel ($100 billion in Arizona, Ohio), TSMC ($65 billion in Arizona), Micron ($100 billion in New York)—building semiconductor plants across 28 states (Semiconductor Industry Association, 2025). Battery factories are booming, with 10 set to open in 2025 (e.g., LG Chem in Michigan) and 15–20 more by 2027, targeting 1,200 GWh capacity by 2030 (BloombergNEF, 2024). Steel and glass are back, too: Hyundai’s $1.5 billion Louisiana plant, Nucor’s $2.7 billion Arkansas mill, Steel Dynamics’ $1.9 billion Kentucky facility, and Dialum/Viracon’s glass factories in Florida signal a heavy industry revival.
This isn’t just about jobs—it’s about the middle class. The CHIPS Act will create 56,000 direct jobs and 300,000 indirect ones (SIA, 2021). Each manufacturing job generates 5–10 support roles so in reality it could be as high as over a half million indirect jobs (Economic Policy Institute), adding $15–25 billion in tax revenue annually by 2030 (NAM, 2024). Hyundai’s plant alone could yield $300–500 million in taxes. Unlike the globalization era, which hollowed out U.S. factories, Trump’s policies prioritize American workers over foreign economies.
Closing China’s Trade Loopholes
China claims it cut its U.S. export reliance from 19.8% to 12.8% (2018–2023). Don’t buy it. Much of this “reduction” is transshipment—Chinese goods relabeled in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, or Cambodia to dodge tariffs. A Harvard study (2024) estimates 16% of Vietnam’s U.S. exports are transshipped Chinese products and that's JUST Vietnam! Trump’s response? High tariffs (46% on Vietnam, 49% on Cambodia) followed by a 90-day pause and 10% rate for compliant nations. The threat of high tariffs on Vietnam's manufacturing base moved them to now enforce strict factory inspections and “Made in Vietnam” label checks. Cambodia pledged tariff cuts (35% to 5%) and export oversight. Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore are tightening controls, too. All wins for Trump's strategy of isolating China.
These deals raise costs for Chinese goods, forcing them through U.S. tariffs—145% unless exempted. While enforcement isn’t perfect (China’s supply chain ties run deep), Trump’s pressure is dismantling Beijing’s workaround, ensuring fairer trade. Again, however Trumps target rate is probably closer to 25%. High enough to make "Made in America" more viable, but not so high as to completely shut down all trade.
China’s Economic Achilles’ Heel
China’s economy is faltering, amplifying U.S. leverage. Its real estate crisis ($300 billion Evergrande debt, 65 million vacant units), 15% youth unemployment, and loss-making EV sector (99/100 firms unprofitable) strain growth (4.6% GDP, 2024). Subsidies ($100 billion for steel, autos) prop up exports but drain resources. China needs U.S. dollars—its $295.4 billion U.S. trade surplus is critical for $3.2 trillion reserves and debt servicing.
Beijing’s diversification to ASEAN ($560 billion) and the EU ($525 billion) faces limits. ASEAN’s growth is strong, but the EU and Japan, with populations shrinking 6% and 0.5% yearly (Eurostat, OECD, 2024), won’t sustain China’s export machine. Food imports (50% of needs, including 100 million tons of soybeans) are another weak point. China’s 125% tariff on U.S. soybeans shifts demand to Brazil, but Brazil’s 150 million-ton limit leaves global gaps (400 million tons traded yearly). The U.S. can sell to the EU or India, maintaining leverage.
Strategic Gains Beyond Economics
China’s military buildup—400+ fighter jets, 20 warships, doubled missiles, 50% more satellites (Pentagon, 2024)—threatens Taiwan by 2027, justifying Trump’s hard line. Its South China Sea aggression alienates Vietnam (27 F-16 orders) and Japan ($7 billion naval buildup), creating U.S. openings. The Belt and Road’s debt traps (e.g., Sri Lanka’s port) spark regional backlash, amplifying Trump’s tariff-driven isolation of Beijing.
Could iPhones be made here? Yes, at a modest cost. Assembly labor in China ($24/unit) would rise to $240 in the U.S., but lower transport and tariffs cut the net increase to $165. Apple’s 44% margins can absorb a 10–15% price hike without losing share to Samsung AND still maintain the most profitable manufacturing operation on earth. Rare earths? The U.S. (Mountain Pass mine) and Australia (Lynas) can supply all needs, despite higher costs (USGS, 2024). China’s 80% share is a choice, not a necessity.
The Road Ahead
Trump hasn’t won the trade war outright—China’s $2.8 trillion reserves and ASEAN trade provide resilience. Inflation risks and supply chain dependencies linger. Initial high tariffs strained allies, but it was a move to get them to police China's transshipment abuses, AND IT WORKED! Hopefully the 10% rate restored goodwill. But Trump’s gains are undeniable: $170 billion in tariff revenue, a manufacturing boom, transshipment curbs, and pressure on China’s economy. Beijing may resist, but its dollar needs and global food constraints limit options. The U.S., with exports at 8% of GDP, can outlast China and in the end, hopefully we can cut a deal that STOPS China from supplying our enemies.
The media’s doom-and-gloom narrative—echoed by Krugman and Peterson—misses the mark, just as it did in 2018. Trump’s tariffs are rewriting the rules, bringing jobs home, and forcing China to rethink its game. The trade war’s endgame is unclear, but one thing’s certain: America’s back in the driver’s seat.

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