Hindsight is 2020 Vision... Well, Except for Smith

By Juan Fermin

December 24, 2025 | NoSocialism.com

Special Counsel Jack Smith has spent years hammering the drum that Donald Trump tried to "steal" the 2020 election from Joe Biden—a contest Smith and his team insist was a pristine, "fair and square" victory for the then-Vice President. In his recent closed-door testimony before the House Judiciary Committee on December 17, 2025, Smith doubled down, claiming his probe uncovered "proof beyond a reasonable doubt" of Trump's criminal conspiracy to obstruct the "lawful transfer of power." It's a narrative that's as selective as it is selective amnesia-inducing. If 2020 was so bulletproof, why does the data—especially in hindsight from the 2024 blowout—paint a picture of an election riddled with anomalies that no other cycle came close to matching?

Let's rewind. The 2020 election wasn't your grandfather's vote-fest. COVID lockdowns birthed a mail-in ballot explosion, with no-excuse absentee voting in 46 states and automatic applications in places like Pennsylvania. Chain-of-custody rules? Spotty at best in urban hubs, where drop boxes sprouted like weeds and signature verification got the side-eye from watchdogs. Turnout hit a record 66.4% of voting-eligible Americans, but the real eyebrow-raiser was the bulge in key swing counties across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—the very Blue Wall states that tipped the scales for Biden by a combined 44,000 votes. These weren't statewide anomalies; they were hyper-local spikes in Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia, Wayne (Detroit), and Milwaukee, where mail-in ballots flowed like Niagara.

Fast-forward to 2024, and Trump's sweep of all seven battlegrounds (including reclaiming PA, MI, and WI) exposes the fragility. Statewide, these Rust Belt gems saw more raw votes in 2024 than 2020—Michigan up 2.6%, Pennsylvania 2.1%, Wisconsin 4%—but the growth was lopsided, surging in pro-Trump rural and suburban areas while urban Democratic bastions shrank. Philadelphia shed 20,000 voters (down 2.9%), Wayne County saw a 4% turnout drop in Detroit, and even Milwaukee's city core had 58% of precincts with lower participation than 2020. If those key counties had turned out at 2016 or 2024 levels instead of the 2020 frenzy? Simple math says Trump flips the trio, netting 270+ electoral votes and the White House.

To drive it home, consider this table of vote totals in those pivotal Democratic counties (data from state election offices, Ballotpedia, and NBC analyses). The 2020 spike is glaring—up 20-25% in raw ballots from 2016, far outpacing population growth (~1-2% annually). Then 2024 normalizes closer to pre-pandemic baselines, helping Trump eke out wins by under 1% statewide.

County (Key Urban Hub)	2016 Total Votes	2020 Total Votes (Spike)	2024 Total Votes	Notes on 2020 Anomaly
Philadelphia, PA	1,100,000	1,412,000 (+28%)	1,392,000	Mail-in: 80% of ballots; Biden 81% share. 2024 drop: 73% precincts lower turnout.
Wayne, MI (Detroit)	1,012,000	1,227,000 (+21%)	1,187,000	Absentee: 65%; Biden 68% share. 2024: 4% turnout dip in city core.
Milwaukee, WI	383,000	480,000 (+25%)	466,000	Mail-in: 75%; Biden 79% share. 2024: 89% turnout (highest in U.S. large cities), but statewide rural surge flipped it.

If even one county per state dialed back to 2016/2024 norms—say, Philadelphia's 1.1M instead of 1.4M—Biden's margins evaporate. Smith dismisses this as "impossible," peddling a fairy tale of an unassailable win. But reality whispers otherwise: a system strained by untested mail-in mechanics, where grandma's ballot could vanish into a family "helper's" hands, and urban spikes smelled more like enthusiasm than epidemic.

And let's not pretend 2020's "stolen" gripes were a Trump invention. Election sore-loser-ism is as American as apple pie—minus the charges. In 1960, Nixon's camp cried foul over Texas's Box 13 scandal (one county's late-night ballot dump flipped the state to JFK by 2 votes), but Tricky Dick waved it off to "national interest." No special counsel, no cuffs. Fast-forward to 2000: Al Gore's hanging-chad saga in Florida's punch-card counties had him conceding then un-conceding, calling Bush's win a "miscount" that "stole" the presidency. SCOTUS stopped the recount circus, but Gore took the high road—no indictments for "obstruction." Then 2016: Hillary Clinton conceded on stage but spent years in books and interviews branding Trump "illegitimate," blaming Russian meddling, Comey's letter, and "voter suppression." "He knows he didn't really win it," she told ABC in 2019. Zero charges, zero special counsels—just salty op-eds.

Smith's selective sword—swinging at Trump while ignoring this bipartisan tradition of doubt—reeks of weaponized justice. If questioning close calls is suddenly a felony, drag out the docket for Gore, Hillary, and every operative who's ever whispered "rigged." But no, it's all about settling scores with the guy who wouldn't bend the knee. Hindsight's 20/20, alright—except when it's Jack Smith's funhouse mirror, where one man's "conspiracy" is another's legitimate beef.

At NoSocialism.com, we call it like we see it: Elections thrive on transparency, not two-tiered prosecutions or mail-in mysteries. Demand chain-of-custody reforms, voter ID nationwide, and an end to the elite echo chamber that crowns "winners" before the chads settle. Because if 2020 taught us anything, it's that trust isn't rebuilt with indictments—it's earned with votes that can't be questioned.

Juan Fermin is a contributing editor at NoSocialism.com, specializing in election integrity and the failures of big-government overreach.

Musk’s Fury Over the “Big Ugly Bill”: Why America’s Spending Addiction Risks a Greek-Style Collapse

By Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com June 7, 2025

Elon Musk is livid, and it’s not because the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit for Tesla was axed in the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” He’s calling it the “Big Ugly Bill” for a reason: while Congress pats itself on the back for “bipartisan” deal-making, the bill’s massive spending hikes—loaded with subsidies for corporate giants like Boeing and Intel—wipe out the hard-won savings Musk delivered through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Worse, this spending spree puts America on a path toward a Greek-style economic collapse, like the one I warned about over a decade ago. The media, predictably, is obsessed with the supposed Musk-Trump feud, ignoring the real crisis: runaway government spending, especially on a broken healthcare system, that threatens to bankrupt the nation. What will it take to wake America up?

The “Big Ugly Bill” and Musk’s Rage

Musk’s anger isn’t about Tesla losing a tax break—it’s about the hypocrisy of a government that cuts one subsidy while shoveling billions to other industries. The bill, passed in early 2025, extends corporate welfare to companies like Boeing ($14 billion in subsidies), Intel ($8 billion), and others Visual Capitalist, while ballooning spending on programs that perpetuate inefficiency. Musk, who spent 130 days leading DOGE—often working seven days a week and sleeping at the White House—delivered $180 billion in claimed savings by June 2025, including $244 million from axing 81 “perpetual” contracts that lingered far beyond their intended terms. Independent estimates, like Reuters’, peg verified savings at $5 billion, but even that’s a start. Yet, the “Big Ugly Bill” nullifies these gains with new spending, estimated at $200–$300 billion over 10 years, on top of existing deficits.

Musk sees the writing on the wall: this isn’t just bad policy—it’s a step toward fiscal ruin. As I wrote in 2012, Greece’s collapse was a warning for America. A decade ago, Greece faced a debt-to-GDP ratio of 177%, crippled by overspending on pensions, healthcare, and public sector bloat. Austerity measures tanked the economy, sparking riots and 27% unemployment. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is now 120% and climbing, with $35 trillion in debt. The “Big Ugly Bill” adds fuel to this fire, ignoring the five reasons government shouldn’t spend recklessly: it crowds out private investment, fuels inflation, distorts markets, rewards cronyism, and burdens future generations.

Healthcare: The Spending Black Hole

The biggest driver of America’s fiscal mess is healthcare, a system so decoupled from market principles it’s been broken for decades. Federal healthcare spending (Medicare, Medicaid, subsidies) eats up $1.8 trillion annually—nearly half the budget—and grows faster than inflation. Price controls, bloated bureaucracies, and lack of competition drive costs skyward, with no improvement in outcomes. For example, U.S. per capita healthcare spending is $12,500, double that of comparable nations, yet life expectancy lags. DOGE’s cuts barely touched this beast, and the “Big Ugly Bill” adds new healthcare subsidies, further entrenching a failed system. Reforming healthcare—through market-based pricing, deregulation, and ending subsidies—could save $5 trillion over 10 years, but Congress lacks the spine.

DOGE’s Savings Wiped Out

Musk’s DOGE targeted “perpetual” contracts—defense, IT, and NGO deals that auto-renew due to lobbying or inertia. DOGE claimed $180 billion in 2025 savings, with $100 billion potentially recurring from contract terminations, workforce cuts ($40 billion), and fraud reduction ($10 billion). Dynamic scoring, like that seen with Reagan’s tax cuts, could add $71 billion in revenue from economic growth, totaling $221 billion over 10 years. But the “Big Ugly Bill” obliterates this with $200–$300 billion in new spending, plus $415 billion in costs from DOGE’s cuts (e.g., $250 billion in lost IRS revenue, $100 billion in economic losses from reduced research). Net result? A $194 billion deficit increase over 10 years, even with optimistic growth effects.

Trump may argue he got all the cuts possible given a divided Congress, but that’s cold comfort when the bill subsidizes everyone but Tesla. Is this resignation, or is the Musk-Trump “feud” just political theater to push for more cuts, as I suggested? Either way, Musk’s frustration is justified: why cut one industry’s incentives while handing billions to Boeing, Intel, and healthcare cronies?

The Greek Warning

Greece’s 2012 collapse—driven by runaway spending and debt—should haunt us. I warned then that America was on a similar path. Greece’s debt crisis led to austerity, economic contraction, and social unrest. America’s $35 trillion debt, plus $1 trillion annual deficits, risks a similar fate if spending isn’t slashed. The “Big Ugly Bill” ignores this, piling on subsidies and programs while the media fixates on Musk vs. Trump drama, not the fiscal cliff. As I wrote in 2013, we can’t keep paying for everything—especially how with Biden we had 8,000 daily illegal crossings adding $150 billion annually in costs.

Trump’s Reagan Moment

Trump wants to emulate Reagan, whose 1981 tax cuts sparked 3.5% GDP growth and doubled revenue by 1989, shrinking deficits as a share of GDP. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts boosted revenue to $3.5 trillion by 2019, despite CBO’s dire predictions. New tax cuts and tariffs could add 0.5–1% to GDP growth, generating $500 billion in revenue over 10 years. But to truly “pull a Reagan,” Trump must pair this with deep cuts:

• Eliminate Departments: The Department of Education ($800 billion over 10 years) and USAID ($500 billion) are prime targets. Education outcomes have worsened since 1979, and USAID often funds corrupt regimes.
• End Corporate Welfare: Cut $100 billion in subsidies to Boeing, Intel, and others, leveling the playing field Musk demands.
• Secure the Border: Save $1 trillion by curbing illegal immigration costs, this is maybe the ONE thing he has going right.
• Reform Healthcare: Market-based reforms could save $5 trillion, dwarfing DOGE’s efforts.

Total potential savings: $7.4 trillion over 10 years. Subtract $415 billion in costs, and net savings could hit $7 trillion, slashing the deficit-to-GDP ratio. This is the Milei-style purge America needs.

Waking Up America

The media’s obsession with Musk-Trump drama distracts from the real issue: spending addiction. While Democrats’ corruption, like Hunter Biden’s CEFC deals, gets a pass, Trump and Musk are vilified. The “Big Ugly Bill” proves Congress won’t act without pressure. As I wrote in 2011, government spending fails because it distorts markets and rewards inefficiency. Americans must demand their representatives slash departments, end subsidies, and reform healthcare before we face Greece’s fate.

Call to Action: Contact your senators and representatives. Demand they reject the “Big Ugly Bill” and support Trump’s tax cuts, DOGE’s mission, and Milei-style cuts to Education, USAID, and corporate welfare. Share this article and my 2012 warning about Greece. Wake up, America—our economy depends on it.